Menu

You are looking for a proficient partner in strategic information analysis and risk consultancy?

We are your SME-friendly, individual business intelligence provider.

We don’t speculate about the future. We anticipate it.

What can we do for you?


Individual scenario planning and analyses of political and macroeconomic risks

Risk is as diverse as businesses and people – and today, the sheer amount of information deluging executives makes it even harder to filter what is relevant. With our individual scenario planning and analyses, in extent as well as depth custom-tailored, we identify the key politico-economic challenges to your business and help you to prepare. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!

Presentations & lectures

You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the world economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

We are the specialist you’ve been searching for


In our “Spotlight” series, we anticipate a key feature of the future politico-economic environment in a ‘What If’-format. What if…Italy were to introduce a parallel currency?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We cover the Commonwealth’s business hub in Southeast Asia with our own economic indicator – the SiNGES shows the health of Singapore’s economy at a glance

We are looking for freelancers educated in economics and/or political sciences!

Economic Ticker TV

Our videoblog on the global economy

In this videoblog, our managing director reports from Singapore on why the Lion City is our FDI favourite in the region.

Events, World Affairs & Press

Donald Trump's next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump's bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US' ...

Details

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty ...

Details

EU-Italian truce to prove temporary

After an erstwhile escalation, this week appears to have brought respite for bond investors scared by deficit sanctions threatened by ...

Details

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics ...

Details

Elections in Spain renew threat of Catalan secession crisis

Ever since its delusive cessation at the beginning of last year, most investors and analysts inside and outside of Spain ...

Details

Short Brexit “flextension” makes general election ever likelier

Short Brexit flextension makes general election ever likelier

Yet another EU summit - and yet another extension. But this one, mind, will definitely be the last. Come October ...

Details

Own visualisation

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even ...

Details

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling ...

Details

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised ...

Details

UKES

United Kingdom Economy’s State

Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.


+++1 July: Sentiment drops sharply to post-referendum lows as main indicator falls towards zero+++

As if succumbing to the current heat, the UK economy is heading towards a torpid summer. Rather than recovering from its recent drop to negative values, economic sentiment as depicted by the expectations component of our UKES has been continuing to weaken, now reading at a new post-EU-referendum low. Since current trading conditions have been faltering, too, the main indicator has thus dropped to almost nil, the line between expansion and contraction. By now, it’s not only Brexit dragging business down: The simultaneous slowdown of global economic activity due to the Sino-American trade war remaining unresolved after the G20 summit in Japan adds to the loss of steam. The one statistic depicting this best is the contribution of net trade to the UK’s GDP in the first quarter: While exports were flat during that period, imports rose by almost seven percent, thus single-handedly all but wiping out both positive contributions of government consumption and an attempted recovery in business investment. At the same time, the labour market shows unequivocal evidence of having peaked, so that henceforth, every further weakening of the UK economy will dent employment and weigh on wages which have fuelled prodigious consumer spending so far. We therefore stick to our projection more than ever: If Brexit comes to its chaotic no-deal conclusion this autumn, or is pushed into further uncertainty yet again, the UK economy stands to be grinding to a halt.

Sources: UK Parliament, Bloomberg
Note:
The UKES is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals: If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.

You would prefer to listen to the current update of the UKES as a podcast?

Indicators

GDP growth (Q2)


Services PMI (July)


Industrial prod. (June)


Manufacturing PMI (July)


Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics