Menu

You are looking for a proficient partner in strategic information analysis and risk consultancy?

We are your SME-friendly, individual business intelligence provider.

With us, uncertainty becomes calculable.

What can we do for you?


Individual studies and analyses of political and macroeconomic risks

Risk is as diverse as businesses and people – and today, the sheer amount of information deluging on executives makes it even harder to filter what is relevant. With our individual studies and analyses, in extent as well as depth custom-tailored, you enhance your grip on your risks and reduce your uncertainty. Whether it is the general economic and political state of a foreign country or the forex risks of one of your subsidiaries: Whatever you need, we can deliver, short and bulletin-like or extensive and in a full dossier. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!

Presentations & lectures

You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our monthly bulletin report “The Global Economy”

With our monthly bulletin, you stay abreast of the developments in the world economy relevant for you and your business – accessible, succinct, and poignant. Thus, you stay in control of your risk management and strategic information analysis, even as you’re sipping your morning cup of coffee.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the world economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

We are the specialist you’ve been searching for


In our “Spotlight” series, we analyse long-run developments capable of creating meta-risks for business. Is there another euro crisis in the making?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We keep you up to date on Singapore’s economic condition – our SiNGES shows the health of the Singaporean economy at a glance

We are looking for freelancers educated in economics and/or political sciences!

Economic Ticker TV

Our videoblog on the global economy

In this videoblog, our managing director reports from Singapore on why the Lion City is our FDI favourite in the region.

Events, World Affairs & Press

Fed’s motivation crucial to determine rates’ path

Ever since Jay Powell's remarks last week that he believes interest rates are almost at their neutral level, the debate ...

Details

Global Economy - Brexit special

In a special issue of our monthly bulletin, we analyse the most likely path for Brexit from here

Details

Westminster Brexit procedures have heightened risk of no deal-Brexit

Westminster Brexit procedures have heightened risk of no deal-Brexit

The confusion about Brexit has just become considerably greater. Yes, the government has survived voting on the amendments to its ...

Details

Trump's trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

After he had promised to tear up NAFTA and end China's allegedly taking undue advantage of the US economy, over ...

Details

Bank of England not to raise rates more than once until late 2018

First, she took investors completely by surprise; then, she corroborated on that; and now, it appears she has gotten a ...

Details

Bandying Brexit fantasies – why Brexit will still come and why the risk even of a no-deal has risen dramatically

Almost nobody seems to be free from it, not even cool-headed ministers such as the Chancellor of the Exchequer: the ...

Details

UKES

United Kingdom Economy’s State

+++18 October: Summer lull short-lived as sentiment sours and Brexit arrives at high-noon+++

It stands to be over just as quickly as it came: This summer’s remarkably strong performance of the UK economy, driven by a sturdy services sector. A glance at the expectations component as the leading indicator of our UKES shows why: Having risen exuberantly in the first months of the year, it now has collapsed to the main indicator line again, indicating the anxious anticipation of the results of the Brexit crunch summit in Brussels these very days. The state component (as it should) has followed the lead of the expectations graph with a time lag of some three months, reaching its levels of the past year only in August. From here, though, signs are for a mild set-back: Emerging from the summer boon, retail sales have begun to disappoint, and business investment in particular appears to have been retrenched over the past three months, as surveys of the Confederation of British Industry indicate. Thus, it is as we’ve been commenting ever since the turn of the year: The eventual type of Brexit now determines whether to make or break the UK economy, which has been remarkably resilient up to here. If a deal is struck in Brussels and agreed by the UK Parliament, the British economy has every potential to accelerate in conspicuous fashion, vying with the United States for the top spot. If, however, we’re right with our projection of a deal reached with the EU27 only to be voted down in the Commons, then the long-expected recession triggered by Brexit will be at our hands rather sooner than later – and this time it’s for real.

Sources: UK Parliament, Bloomberg


You would like to listen to the current update of the UKES as a podcast?

Our UKES is an indicator of the condition of the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form. It consists of two components and the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.

The UKES describes the development of the British economy in the recent past rather precisely; particularly the expectations component has emerged as a valid tool for prognosis. It is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals:

If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.

Indicators

Retail sales (Oct.)


Industrial prod. (Oct.)


Consumer confidence (Nov.)


Manufacturing PMI (Oct.)


Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics