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You are unsettled by the heightened political risk in the global economy? You want to know what that means for your business?

We are your SME-friendly, individual business intelligence provider.

We don’t speculate about the future. We anticipate it.

What can we do for you?


Individual scenario planning and analyses of political and macroeconomic risks

With our individual risk profiles, we identify the key politico-economic challenges to your business and help you to prepare. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!

Presentations & lectures

You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the world economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

We are the specialist you’ve been searching for


In our “Spotlight” series, we anticipate a key feature of the future politico-economic environment in a ‘What If’-format. What if…Italy were to introduce a parallel currency?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We cover the Commonwealth’s business hub in Southeast Asia with our own economic indicator – the SiNGES shows the health of Singapore’s economy at a glance

We are looking for freelancers educated in economics and/or political sciences!

Brexit Real Time

Our running analysis

Events, World Affairs & Press

Yields, the euro and the greenback - our take

It is aconsensus among analysts at the beginning of this year: That for lack of asubstantially altered monetary policy among ...

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Dutch economy faces crucial fork at beginning of new year

So far, it has been one of the economies in the eurozone keeping up relatively well in the face of ...

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Four scenarios how the UK snap election is to play out

The campaign is on, and the UK will go to the polls on 12 December. So what are the conceivable ...

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Donald Trump's next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump's bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US' ...

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Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty ...

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Elections in Spain renew threat of Catalan secession crisis

Ever since its delusive cessation at the beginning of last year, most investors and analysts inside and outside of Spain ...

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Own visualisation

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even ...

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First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling ...

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Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised ...

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UKES

United Kingdom Economy’s State

Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.


+++3 January: Sentiment recovers towards year’s end, but current conditions still heading downwards+++

What goes down will go up again eventually – this topsy-turvy variant of popular wisdom holds particularly true for human sentiment. And just as reliably, the expectations component of our UKES tends to recover after steep falls or reaching new troughs, and it’s no different this time. After marking a new three-year low, economic sentiment in the UK bounced back towards neutral levels again, if not very convincingly so. Yet what really undermines this recovery of sorts is the parallel and sustained decline of current trading conditions as depicted by the UKES’s state component: Notwithstanding massive volatility in inventories and net trade contributing to an upward jolt in the run-up to the mooted Brexit date of October 31, the state component has established a downward trend ever since the dust had settled in the aftermath of the referendum shock in 2017. We don’t anticipate the so-called “Boris bounce” to end that picture materially; only a massive and surprising spending programme by the Chancellor of the Exchequer might effect such change. In the meantime, Brexit uncertainty will resume around the impending trade negotiations between Britain and the EU, and that will do no good for business investment anyway in a parlous state for years now – Hard to find any optimism under these circumstances.

Sources: UK Parliament, Bloomberg
Note:
The UKES is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals: If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.

You would prefer to listen to the current update of the UKES as a podcast?

Indicators

Retail sales (Dec)


Consumer confidence (Dec)


Services PMI (Dec)


Composite PMI (Dec.)


Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics