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Individual studies and analyses of political and macroeconomic risks

Risk is as diverse as businesses and people – and today, the sheer amount of information deluging on executives makes it even harder to filter what is relevant. With our individual studies and analyses, in extent as well as depth custom-tailored, you enhance your grip on your risks and reduce your uncertainty. Whether it is the general economic and political state of a foreign country or the forex risks of one of your subsidiaries: Whatever you need, we can deliver, short and bulletin-like or extensive and in a full dossier. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!

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You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our monthly bulletin report “The Global Economy”

With our monthly bulletin, you stay abreast of the developments in the world economy relevant for you and your business – accessible, succinct, and poignant. Thus, you stay in control of your risk management and strategic information analysis, even as you’re sipping your morning cup of coffee.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the world economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

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In our “Spotlight” series, we analyse long-run developments capable of creating meta-risks for business. Is there another euro crisis in the making?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We keep you up to date on Singapore’s economic condition – our SiNGES shows the health of the Singaporean economy at a glance

We are looking for freelancers educated in economics and/or political sciences!

Economic Ticker TV

Our videoblog on the global economy

In this videoblog, our managing director reports from Singapore on why the Lion City is our FDI favourite in the region.

Events, World Affairs & Press

Brand-new: SiNGES-updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too. Here's ...


Westminster Brexit procedures have heightened risk of no deal-Brexit

Westminster Brexit procedures have heightened risk of no deal-Brexit

The confusion about Brexit has just become considerably greater. Yes, the government has survived voting on the amendments to its ...


Trump's trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

After he had promised to tear up NAFTA and end China's allegedly taking undue advantage of the US economy, over ...


Progress on Brexit bill reassuring, but it's way too early for general relief

After many weeks of virtual deadlock, there finally seems to be some real progress: Reportedly, Brexit negotiators in Brussels have ...


Bank of England not to raise rates more than once until late 2018

First, she took investors completely by surprise; then, she corroborated on that; and now, it appears she has gotten a ...


Bandying Brexit fantasies – why Brexit will still come and why the risk even of a no-deal has risen dramatically

Almost nobody seems to be free from it, not even cool-headed ministers such as the Chancellor of the Exchequer: the ...



United Kingdom Economy’s State

+++13 June: UKES treads water as parliament arrives at first showdown over Brexit+++

For quite some time now, our UKES has been mirroring the wait-and-see mode of the UK economy. Sentiment is not really bad, as the expectations component bouncing off from the main indicator line has demonstrated time and again. Current business conditions, however, have been slowly deteriorating over the past months, as the state component shows. The most recent, disconcerting data on industrial production has confirmed that deterioration, even though all components of the UKES logged a small recovery in May, primarily down to markedly improved PMI statistics and much better than anticipated retail sales figures. The loss of steam from the erstwhile leading manufacturing sector, however, will undoubtedly materialise in the next update of our indicator, as its repercussion will be felt from this month onwards only. In any event, having never pencilled in better GDP growth than 0.2 per cent for the second quarter, we now project that exact number to turn out as the actual quarterly growth rate in the three months to the end of June. With the government staving off a defeat over Parliament’s voting on the amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill, sentiment will be remaining stable for now, but uncertainty will linger, too.

Sources: UK Parliament, Office of National Statistics, CNBC, London Stock Exchange, Trading Economics, Bloomberg

Our UKES is an indicator of the condition of the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form. It consists of two components and the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.

The UKES describes the development of the British economy in the recent past rather precisely; particularly the expectations component has emerged as a valid tool for prognosis. It is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals:

When the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. When the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified.


Composite PMI (June)

Inflation (June)

Retail sales (May)

Exports growth (Apr.)

Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics