Economic Ticker

The pulse of the global economy

The archive of our monthly bulletin offers even more analysis throughout the global economy

When everybody is fixated on Boris, it pays to look at his closest contenders

27 May 2019, 03:29 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, Forex, GBP, UK

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

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UK local elections likely to speed up Brexit

06 May 2019, 03:21 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, UK

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy


With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

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06 May 2019, 11:18 am

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, US

Labor victory in Australian election to deliver a shock to fragile house prices

Elections in Spain renew threat of Catalan secession crisis


Ever since its delusive cessation at the beginning of last year, most investors and analysts inside and outside of Spain had chosen to close their eyes at the pending disaster threatening to resurface again in the heated atmosphere of Spain’s general election, triggered by the very issue at stake: Catalonia breaking away from the rest of the country.

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23 April 2019, 11:00 am

Kategorien: Euro, Europe, Exports, FDI, Trade

Short Brexit “flextension” makes general election ever likelier

Yet another EU summit – and yet another extension. But this one, mind, will definitely be the last. Come October 31st, Britain will be out finally, one way or the other (barring a unilateral revocation of Brexit). The extension itself has turned out far shorter than anticipated by many, courtesy of France. So what does it provide for? A general election? A second referendum? We try and answer these and other questions in turn.

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11 April 2019, 01:15 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, Exports, FDI, Forex, GBP, Markets, Sterling, Trade, UK

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

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No-deal still as likely as a People’s Vote is not

So the Commons have spoken – yet not as unambigiously as so many commentators prematurely banking on the final prevention of a no-deal Brexit would have it. Not only is the postponement of Brexit approved by MPs yesterday evening a safe bet, but its eventual occurrence would also be far from guaranteeing an orderly Brexit (or even its retraction).

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15 March 2019, 01:00 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, FDI, Forex, GBP, Sterling, UK

Even if backstop codicil agreed, Withdrawal Agreement will be facing defeat in the Commons

Our latest analytical tweet (pinned to our profile until 12 March) shows why the recent emollience of the European Research Group (ERG) and even support from the DUP will probably fail to get the Brexit deal passed in the Commons:weiterlesen →

28 February 2019, 04:27 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, UK