Economic Ticker

The pulse of the global economy

The archive of our monthly bulletin offers even more analysis throughout the global economy

Short Brexit “flextension” makes general election ever likelier

Yet another EU summit – and yet another extension. But this one, mind, will definitely be the last. Come October 31st, Britain will be out finally, one way or the other (barring a unilateral revocation of Brexit). The extension itself has turned out far shorter than anticipated by many, courtesy of France. So what does it provide for? A general election? A second referendum? We try and answer these and other questions in turn.

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11 April 2019, 01:15 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, Exports, FDI, Forex, GBP, Markets, Sterling, Trade, UK

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

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No-deal still as likely as a People’s Vote is not

So the Commons have spoken – yet not as unambigiously as so many commentators prematurely banking on the final prevention of a no-deal Brexit would have it. Not only is the postponement of Brexit approved by MPs yesterday evening a safe bet, but its eventual occurrence would also be far from guaranteeing an orderly Brexit (or even its retraction).

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15 March 2019, 01:00 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, FDI, Forex, GBP, Sterling, UK

Even if backstop codicil agreed, Withdrawal Agreement will be facing defeat in the Commons

Our latest analytical tweet (pinned to our profile until 12 March) shows why the recent emollience of the European Research Group (ERG) and even support from the DUP will probably fail to get the Brexit deal passed in the Commons:weiterlesen →

28 February 2019, 04:27 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, UK

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

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28 February 2019, 12:34 pm

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

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US Small Business Sentiment sours markedly

Helpful though they might have been, Donald Trump’s tax cuts not only have begun to wear off – his simultaneous trade spat with China and his readiness to plunge the federal government into as many shutdowns as it takes to get the funding for his pet border wall project have started to leave their marks on the US economy, too.

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12 February 2019, 12:49 pm

Kategorien: Business confidence, Exports, Growth, US

Attempt to reopen Brexit negotiations makes no-deal Brexit near certain

It is a metaphor often mentioned in relation to yesterday evening’s voting in the Commons: the unicorn. And it is an apt choice. For the fairy-tale qualities of that mythical creature exactly mirror the qualities of the decision MPs have taken with regard to the amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU.

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30 January 2019, 02:33 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, Forex, GBP, Markets, Sterling, UK

Fed’s motivation crucial to determine rates’ path

04 December 2018, 05:39 pm

Kategorien: Forex, Inflation/Deflation, Interest rates, Markets, Monetary Policy, Treasuries, US, US-Dollar

It’s the governors, mind – Part II

This year’s midterms are only a week away – hence, it’s time for the second part of our analysis of those often overlooked elections, the races for the individual states’ governor’s mansions (see last week’s instalment if you haven’t already, too).

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29 October 2018, 11:30 am

Kategorien: Midterms 2018, US