Our current situation analysis


Risk of a euro crisis

60 per cent

Our detailed decision tree analysis calculates the risk of the eurozone losing members within the next 12 months +++ 6 March 2018: The elections in Italy have yielded the very result we had been anticipating ever since the beginning of last year (see chart and our running commentary in section “Economic Ticker”), with the eurosceptic Five Star Movement and the Lega, respectively, emerging as the winners. Since there are several areas of common ground between the two populist parties, a scenario of a coalition between the two is on the cards, resulting in a substantial threat to the integrity of the Euro Area. All told, that raises our risk level to 60 per cent.

See theĀ January issue of our monthly bulletin for a detailed analysis of the Italian election, too!

Decision tree euro crisis