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Forex dealers. Politico-economic risk specialists.

We don’t speculate about the future. We anticipate it.

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We are analysts and proprietary dealers in foreign exchange markets. And we assist you, too, in identifying the key politico-economic drivers for your own forex management – See our brochure rightaway!

Presentations & lectures

You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the global economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

We are the specialist you’ve been searching for

In our “Spotlight” series, we anticipate a key feature of the future politico-economic environment in a ‘What If’-format. What if…The US presidential election ends up in utter chaos?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We cover the Commonwealth’s business hub in Southeast Asia with our own economic indicator – the SiNGES shows the health of Singapore’s economy at a glance

Forex ratings

Our current assessments

A contested US presidential election is the most likely outcome

The three US election scenarios offered by our esteemed colleagues over at ING Economics are plausible – yet they omit ...

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Corporate debt will be where next asset crash starts

It's been a candidate for further trouble as soon as the corona crash hit markets back in March. Yet because ...

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Forget about a v-shaped recovery and prepare for long-term disruption

Monday, March 9, 2020 has already secured its dubious rank among the historic days of panic on financial markets. The ...

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Yields, the euro and the greenback - our take

It is aconsensus among analysts at the beginning of this year: That for lack of asubstantially altered monetary policy among ...

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Dutch economy faces crucial fork at beginning of new year

So far, it has been one of the economies in the eurozone keeping up relatively well in the face of ...

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Donald Trump's next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump's bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US' ...

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Own visualisation

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even ...

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UKES

United Kingdom Economy’s State

Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.


+++27 August: Looks like a v-shaped recovery – stands to prove a w-shaped one, though+++

A quick glance at our UKES would seem to prove the Bank of England’s assessment accurate (if in all due humility we might say so): That the UK economy is going to experience a v-shaped recovery indeed. Both sub-indicators and, thus, the main indicator have recovered from their historic troughs back in April/May in momentous fashion, with the expectations component even back in positive territory as well as up and above both the state component and the main indicator; normally, that signals an ongoing economic expansion ahead. But hold on: All that, of course, depends on a mighty ‘if’ related to coronavirus: If there’s either no second wave of infections or a treatment/vaccine in a timely manner, our UKES points towards a decent recovery of the UK economy fast enough to prevent the much-feared onslaught of mass redundancies. If, however, anything akin to a second wave is going to necessitate measured lockdowns or the like time and again over the course of the coming months until, lastly, a treatment or vaccine become available, the apparent second leg of a ‘v’ will turn out to be the first of a ‘w’, instead. And that’s exactly what we still expect: Not only is it highly unlikely that, henceforth, coronavirus will suddenly cease to impinge on the global economy, but also is the government’s furlough scheme going to end earlier than the eventual defeat of the virus is going to happen – with the related consequences for employment, consumer confidence and, hence, retail sales. Note that wage growth has become negative for the first time in years already, so that households will tend to become thrifty in the months ahead; if rising unemployment were to add to that in due course, consumption demand would contract severely. Manufacturing, likewise, ought to have seen the best part of the steep recovery already, with any further upside limited by the ongoing disruption to exports demand from the rest of the world. These are unprecedented times – and all signs of recovery, though welcome, should always be taken warily as long as coronavirus remains with us.

Sources: UK Parliament, Bloomberg
Note:
The UKES is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals: If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.

Twitter

Our running analysis

Our managing director strongly expects a #Brexit deal to be struck and offers a likely timeline.

But make no mistake: Even this eventual result were a very hard Brexit by all original definitions of the term, i.e. with #Britain attaining the status of Canada, not Norway. https://twitter.com/JayJaySteffen/status/1317785385582329857

Jakob Steffen@JayJaySteffen

Alright, lads and lassies, let's take #Boris's #Brexit threat for what it is, i.e. another negotiating ploy. Then, the most likely course of events is this: 1/
- A deal is struck sometime in Nov.
- Ratification by all EU member states turns out to be necessary; https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1317762563761987585

Viele ÖkonomInnen geben sich nun negativ überrascht, dass die vermeintlich v-förmige Erholung aus der #Coronakrise schon wieder in einen zweiten Abschwung umschlagen könnte.

Wir nicht. Das ist unsere Warnung bereits seit März gewesen:

#Corona #Rezession
https://www.j-s-research.org/anhaltende-disruption-statt-v-foermiger-erholung/

if you can take any more news today, the govt was thumped in Lords on the controversial Internal Market Bill - including some Tories voting against - here's the breakdown https://votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Lords/Division/2343

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Indicators

Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics