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In our “Spotlight” series, we anticipate a key future politico-economic development in a ‘What If’-format. What if…Scotland calls for another independence referendum?

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Our current assessments


United Kingdom Economy’s State

Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.

+++29 April: Expectations booming as UK economy begins to leave corona crisis behind+++

There, finally: the clear signs of a post-Covid recovery for the UK economy. Though the state component as well as the main indicator line of our UKES still appear to show some weakness, that is primarily down to the simple fact that the most recent available stats to compute the UKES do not yet include April, the month of the big reopening of UK high streets. Nevertheless, the expectations component indicates what to expect in the months ahead: a veritable boom. Having recaptured the very elevated levels of its re-emerging from the first troughs of the corona crisis back in the last summer, the expectations component is anticipating a comparable recovery in economic activity as obtained in Q3 of last year indeed. And while services are joining the party this time around, it is the manufacturing sector in the vanguard once again: Never in the past years has the CBI Industrial Trends survey reached higher levels than in its most recent updates, in spite of the massive friction created by the post-Brexit trade agreement with the EU. Outside of a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant emerging from the horrible situation in India, this time around there is no substantial impediment to an all-out economic boom in the UK anywhere to be discerned. True, exports will continue to suffer from the newly created red tape in trading relations with the EU; demand for exports elsewhere, however, will be ruddy enough to make up for some of those losses, while domestic demand is going to spring back to life with a vengeance. Good times ahead, then.

—Notice to our valued customers and followers: Due to the rebalancing of our activities amid the corona pandemic, we have decided to cease publication of the UKES with this update. We apologise for any inconvenience.—
Sources: UK Parliament, Financial Times
The UKES is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals: If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.


Our running analysis

🇩🇪 German PMIs reveal a rise in prices charged for goods and services "well beyond anything seen before in the series history in June, led by manufacturing."
The ECB should look through this, but pipeline inflationary pressures continue to build.

There's other things for #consumers to spend their money on than physical #RetailSales - and that's the very sector hit hardest by the pandemic as well as facing labour #bottlenecks right now: #services in general and #hospitality in particular.

Danske Bank Research@Danske_Research

Don't worry about falling US retail sales even if it continues in coming months - may just reflect that Americans are spending more money on services again. Monthly PCE data are due out next Friday! (25 June)

The #Fed makes a hawkish turn - and #Treasuries rally. That seems odd because it is. And before long, #yields will continue to climb, says our newest analysis bulletin:

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