With our individual risk profiles, we identify the key politico-economic challenges to your business and help you to prepare. In the current corona crisis, we focus on the liquidity risk of your forex management particularly. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!
You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.
On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.
Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.
The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.
+++27 February: Sentiment marks a veritable election pop-up, but current state of economy continues to trouble+++
What a difference an election makes: Though coming down unequivocally in favour of a hard Brexit as offered by the Conservatives, last December’s going to the polls has done away with the great uncertainty hampering the UK economy throughout the months before. That hasn’t failed to work its magic: Almost instantly, animal instincts returned to many British businesses announcing to implement capital spending they had been holding back before. Indeed, had it not been for the huge drag gross fixed investment constituted, GDP growth would have been positive throughout rather than flatlining towards the end of last year. And there’s more: Now that investment has sprung back to life, erstwhile lacklustre retail sales have been recovering since the beginning of the new year, too; even manufacturing has been improving from its recent troughs as indicated by the sector’s PMI. But hold on: All this is part primarily of economic sentiment, hence resulting in a pop-up of the expectations component of our UKES. Current trading conditions, by contrast, have continued to deteriorate for the time being, in spite of a positive contribution from net trade due to still subdued imports from the EU. If coronavirus is now going to have its certain impact on British exports and economic activity, too, we expect the state component of the UKES to dip into negative territory, even if business investment is to recover. The only thing to shield the UK economy from a still imminent recession, then, is the huge fiscal spending programme in the offing which might turn out of even better timing than thought originally. Thus, in the end it might well be the state’s coffers averting an otherwise likely economic slump.
Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Industrial prod. (Jan)
Services PMI (Feb)
Consumer confidence (Feb)
Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics