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You are unsettled by heightened risk levels in the global economy? You want to know what that means for your business?

We are your SME-friendly, individual business intelligence provider.

We don’t speculate about the future. We anticipate it.

What can we do for you?


Individual scenario planning and analyses of political and macroeconomic risks

With our individual risk profiles, we identify the key politico-economic challenges to your business and help you to prepare. In the current corona crisis, we focus on the liquidity risk of your forex management particularly. See our brochure for the details and contact us to inquire what we can do for you!

Presentations & lectures

You need a speech or presentation regarding current political and/or macroeconomic developments in relation to your event? You intend an economics training course for your staff, looking for a competent and versatile lecturer? Well, help might be just an e-mail away.

Our “Economic Ticker“, your live guide to the world economy’s developments

On our blog, we provide you with running commentary and analysis of the political and economic developments in the world economy, just as it happens, sorted and archived in dozens of categories to serve your specific interest.

We are the specialist you’ve been searching for


In our “Spotlight” series, we anticipate a key feature of the future politico-economic environment in a ‘What If’-format. What if…The US presidential election ends up in utter chaos?

We are your risk analysis partner for the Commonwealth and its Sub-Sahara Africa member countries in particular

We cover the Commonwealth’s business hub in Southeast Asia with our own economic indicator – the SiNGES shows the health of Singapore’s economy at a glance

We are looking for freelancers educated in economics and/or political sciences!

Brexit Real Time

Our running analysis

Events, World Affairs & Press

#Currencyflash – greenback standing tall with sterling in the starting blocks and the euro in the doldrums

#Currencyflash - greenback standing tall with sterling in the starting blocks and the euro in the doldrums

It would appear we had the correct inkling in January, predicting a strong dollar for the remainder of the year ...

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Forget about a v-shaped recovery and prepare for long-term disruption

Monday, March 9, 2020 has already secured its dubious rank among the historic days of panic on financial markets. The ...

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Milwaukee calling – and a contested convention beckoning

So Joe Biden did win in South Carolina. Indeed, he won so big that with Pete Buttigieg’s suspending his campaign, ...

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Yields, the euro and the greenback - our take

It is aconsensus among analysts at the beginning of this year: That for lack of asubstantially altered monetary policy among ...

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Dutch economy faces crucial fork at beginning of new year

So far, it has been one of the economies in the eurozone keeping up relatively well in the face of ...

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Donald Trump's next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump's bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US' ...

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Elections in Spain renew threat of Catalan secession crisis

Ever since its delusive cessation at the beginning of last year, most investors and analysts inside and outside of Spain ...

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Own visualisation

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even ...

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First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling ...

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Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised ...

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UKES

United Kingdom Economy’s State

Specialising in the politico-economic risk analysis of the Commonwealth’s member states, we have created our own economic indicator for the UK economy which, otherwise, does not exist in this comprehensive form: the UKES. It consists of two components constituting the main index.

The component “expectations” runs ahead of the current situation, comprising elements such as development of inflation and interest rates, consumer- and business confidence, etc. The “state” component describes the current situation and comprises data such as industrial production, net trade, etc. The main index, then, is a smoothed combination of the two components.


+++27 February: Sentiment marks a veritable election pop-up, but current state of economy continues to trouble+++

What a difference an election makes: Though coming down unequivocally in favour of a hard Brexit as offered by the Conservatives, last December’s going to the polls has done away with the great uncertainty hampering the UK economy throughout the months before. That hasn’t failed to work its magic: Almost instantly, animal instincts returned to many British businesses announcing to implement capital spending they had been holding back before. Indeed, had it not been for the huge drag gross fixed investment constituted, GDP growth would have been positive throughout rather than flatlining towards the end of last year. And there’s more: Now that investment has sprung back to life, erstwhile lacklustre retail sales have been recovering since the beginning of the new year, too; even manufacturing has been improving from its recent troughs as indicated by the sector’s PMI. But hold on: All this is part primarily of economic sentiment, hence resulting in a pop-up of the expectations component of our UKES. Current trading conditions, by contrast, have continued to deteriorate for the time being, in spite of a positive contribution from net trade due to still subdued imports from the EU. If coronavirus is now going to have its certain impact on British exports and economic activity, too, we expect the state component of the UKES to dip into negative territory, even if business investment is to recover. The only thing to shield the UK economy from a still imminent recession, then, is the huge fiscal spending programme in the offing which might turn out of even better timing than thought originally. Thus, in the end it might well be the state’s coffers averting an otherwise likely economic slump.

Sources: UK Parliament, Bloomberg
Note:
The UKES is calculated to scale so that a positive reading of the state component as well as the main index signals current economic expansion. Furthermore, the UKES generates these other signals: If the expectations graph rises through that of the state component, that is a valid signal for an economic upturn in the near future (3-6 months) and vice versa for a break-down through the state graph. If the state component, additionally, plots over the main index, that signals a healthy and stable economic expansion; when it plots beneath the main index, the current economic upturn has not yet solidified or the recession is persistent, respectively.

You would prefer to listen to the current update of the UKES as a podcast?

Indicators

Manufacturing PMI (Mar)


Industrial prod. (Jan)


Services PMI (Feb)


Consumer confidence (Feb)


Individual country ranges according to historic max-/min levels

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica, Customs General Administration of China, bloomberg, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), UK Office of National Statistics (ONS), Trading Economics