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Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services


Konjunkturticker

Der Pulsschlag der Weltökonomie

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

weiterlesen →

14. August 2019, 11:11 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

weiterlesen →

19. July 2019, 11:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US

Japanese Yen not to profit from trade-related turmoil as usual

As Donald Trump has been ramping up the pressure on US trading partners, it is one of the favourite topics on the marketplace again: the Japanese Yen. Nippon’s currency is considered as a traditional “safe haven” in times of turbulence, tending to appreciate under these circumstances. Yet this time around, we project that not to happen or, if at all, in a markedly subdued fashion.

weiterlesen →

Trump’s trade wars becoming reality threaten to topple goldilocks economy

containers

With Donald Trump threatening an escalation of the trade conflict with China again, our early analysis as much as warning at the beginning of last year becomes completely vindicated, after way too much complacency among commentators and investors alike:

weiterlesen →

06. May 2019, 11:18 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Emerging Markets, Exports, Growth, Markets, Singapore, Trade, Trade war, US

EM external debt to become critical if global economy slowdown continues

As the global economy is cooling down considerably and some heavy-weight countries such as Turkey, Germany, the UK or even the US might be heading towards a (mild) recession, it would appear advisable to pay a closer look to international net external debt levels in order to identify potential trouble early on.

weiterlesen →

28. March 2019, 16:49 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Debt, Emerging Markets, Forex, PICTS, South America, Southeast Asia, Sovereign debt, Turkey

First default by Chinese state-owned enterprise in two decades heralds trouble

It is by no means the first default of a Chinese company in recent years, with three private enterprises falling short of their debt obligations this year alone. It even isn’t the first default by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), at least insofar as the onshore Renminbi market is concerned. But Qinghai Provincial Investment Group marked the first instance of a Chinese SOE in twenty years defaulting on an offshore dollar bond, heralding a new chapter in the increasingly marred story the Chinese economy has become.

weiterlesen →

28. February 2019, 12:34 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Debt, Markets

Indian rate cut reeks of political incitement

Though it didn’t come wholly unanticipated, the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 7 February raised a few eyebrows nonetheless (our own included). Of course, inflation was abating all over 2018 and has continued its subdued development into the new year: indeed, at some 2 per cent it is at a level scarcely akin to an emerging economy. Yet it remains the disconcerting feeling that the primary driver behind the turnaround in the RBI’s policy stance, which also changed its guidance from “appropriately tight” to “neutral”, is politics.

weiterlesen →

Shadow lenders add to Indian financial risks

They are of peculiar relevance as much as imminence for the Indian economy: Non-financial or shadow lenders are the country’s backbone of infrastructure investment. Now these very institutions have slid into trouble.

weiterlesen →

25. September 2018, 11:39 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, Commonwealth, Debt, Emerging Markets, India

Brand-new: SiNGES updates as podcasts!

As of this June, updates of the SiNGES, our one-stop economic indicator for Singapore, will be available as podcasts, too.

Here’s the first edition:

Hong Kong retail sales with mighty bounce, finally confirming recent positive trend

All over the months in between 2011-2015, retail sales growth in Hong Kong lost steam continuously, falling to a multi-year low of almost -20 per cent year-on-year at the beginning of 2016. Once among the stars of retail hot spots, the city state lost out to direct competitors such as Singapore as much as upcoming cities in Asia and the Gulf states.

weiterlesen →

31. May 2018, 15:03 Uhr

Kategorien: Asia, China, Consumer confidence, Exports, Households, Retail & Services