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Economic Ticker

The pulse of the global economy

The archive of our monthly bulletin offers even more analysis throughout the global economy

The frontrunner’s curse: Why Joe Biden won’t win the Democratic nomination

It has become such a regular feature of the US election cycle that it shouldn’t come as too big a surprise: Long leading the field of contenders for the Democratic nomination in this year’s US presidential elections, Joe Biden stands to be burned before Super Tuesday.

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03 February 2020, 04:06 pm

Kategorien: US, US elections 2020

Yields, the euro and the greenback – our take

It is a consensus among analysts at the beginning of this year: That for lack of a substantially altered monetary policy among the G7, yields cannot but continue their downward trend or at least stay subdued. Such an assessment, however, tends to overlook or presuppose one essential factor: fiscal spending. And it’s that factor making us anticipate the opposite of the majority view.

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Dutch economy faces crucial fork at beginning of new year

So far, it has been one of the economies in the eurozone keeping up relatively well in the face of adverse developments in global manufacturing. But of late, the Dutch economy has caught the industrial flu, too, and faces a crucial parting of ways at the beginning of the new year: Whether there will be a sustainable truce in US-sponsored protectionism or not.

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09 January 2020, 04:22 pm

Kategorien: Business confidence, Consumer confidence, Europe, Exports, FDI, GDP, Households, Netherlands

Update to our “Brexit Real Time”

Finally, it’s election day in the UK – again. Tonight will see the answer to the key question of the past weeks: Whether the Conservatives will indeed be able to win an overall majority, with all the implications for Britain and – above all – Brexit. But will a Tory win really get Brexit done? And what would a Labour minority government mean for the process of exiting the EU?

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12 December 2019, 11:25 am

Kategorien: Brexit, Europe, FDI, Forex, GBP, UK

US state elections bode ill for Donald Trump’s prospects

With hindsight, later commentators might come to say that this was the moment Donald Trump’s prospects for re-election began to fade.

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07 November 2019, 05:16 pm

Kategorien: US elections 2020

Four scenarios how the UK snap election is to play out

The campaign is on, and the UK will go to the polls on 12 December. So what are the conceivable outcomes, and what might be their impact on Brexit? We have discerned four scenarios and analysed their respective consequences for the next stage of Britain leaving the European Union. weiterlesen →

05 November 2019, 04:34 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, FDI, Forex, GBP, Markets, Sterling, Trade, UK

Denmark’s consumers now turning sour, too

For quite some time, Denmark’s economy and its consumers in particular have resisted the gloom continually encompassing the global economy. Industrial production as much as retail sales have withstood the downturn that has befallen many European countries, with German consumers the latest to display some reticence in spending as freely as they did before. As yet, only the Dutch have been as resilient as the Danish.

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23 October 2019, 10:59 am

Kategorien: Consumer confidence, Denmark, Europe, Exports, Households, Retail & Services

Another Brexit delay and no deal off the table – think again

The Commons have spoken – and they have forced the government’s hand, rendering Boris Johnson a Prime Minister in office, but not in power.

So after the tumultuous past 48 hours in Westminster, whither are Brexit and the country heading? Here’re three answers to the three key questions as we identify them right now:

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05 September 2019, 02:50 pm

Kategorien: Brexit, Commonwealth, Europe, Exports, FDI, Forex, GBP, Markets, Trade, UK

Donald Trump’s next step: currency intervention

The US dollar is standing tall, stubbornly refusing to do Donald Trump’s bidding. In his efforts to shrink the US’ trade deficit, the President has an intelligible interest in checking the greenback’s strength. And we think he will not refrain from the ultimate instrument to achieve this end: direct intervention by the Treasury on foreign exchange markets.

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14 August 2019, 11:11 am

Kategorien: Asia, China, Forex, Liquidity & Transactions, Markets, Trade war, US, US-Dollar

Trade deal probably not before the US presidential elections

It has been being a veritable rollercoaster ride so far: the state and prospects of the US-China trade talks. Frosty periods and even break-downs have been followed by mutually ostentatious good-will, only to collapse again. These days are no different: After a restart of the talks at the G20 summit in Japan in June, Donald Trump has unnerved markets and businesses again by stating that he was in no hurry to cut a deal. So how likely is an agreement between the two economic superpowers, and when, if at all, might it happen?

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19 July 2019, 11:03 am

Kategorien: Asia, BRICS, China, Exports, Growth, Trade, Trade war, US